Smoke Tree, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS66 KEKA 251952
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1252 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Breezier winds possible today through Friday, bringing
elevated fire weather concerns. Seasonable temperatures are expected
to continue today through Friday, followed by hotter weather this
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally major HeatRisk
this weekend, especially on Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery continues to show stratus blanketing
much of the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts early this afternoon,
while stratus has largely lifted and mixed out along the Mendocino
coast. An approaching shortwave is likely to weaken the marine
inversion slightly, which could cause more scattering and mixing
(along with breezy afternoon winds), but any blue skies will likely
be short lived as stratus returns again in the evening. Interior
high temperatures are forecast to remain at or slightly above
normal, with highs in the mid 80`s to low 90`s across the valleys
and 70`s in the mountains. Highs temperatures for the coastal areas
remain in the upper 50`s to low 60`s.

Breezier west-northwesterly winds are likely through the channeled
terrain today through Friday. NBM is showing around 65-85%
probabilities for gusts over 25 mph in the valleys of Trinity, Lake,
and interior Mendocino. Higher gusts are possible over the
surrounding ridges. While these winds are not too unusual, combining
these with warm temperatures and low afternoon humidity presents a
localized fire weather concern. Coastal headlands have similarly
high wind probabilities, especially in Cape Mendocino and Pt Arena.

The offshore ridge moves over the area this weekend and into early
next week, bringing a warm deep-layer air-mass across the WRN-CONUS.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is expected to form off the coast
of California. Model guidance has been very consistent supporting
850 mb temperatures of 25-30C or so over the eastern portion of the
forecast area, including interior Mendocino, Lake and Trinity
counties. Interior heat will build on Friday and then peak on
Sunday. NBM is showing 50-80% probabilities for the hottest valleys
to see triple digits by Saturday and 60-100% probabilities by
Sunday, with the highest chances in the Trinity County. HeatRisk is
forecast to be minor to moderate over the area, but locally Major
HeatRisk is expected to occur over portions of Trinity County on
Sunday. The heat could have impacts for individuals sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. At this point, Major HeatRisk is only expected over
isolated areas. However, we are going to continue monitoring in case
a heat product is needed. It is not out of the question for the
coastal areas to warm up into the 70`s before the sea breezes
develop in the afternoon.

The influence of the upper-level low off the coast along with the
heat could possibly bring dry thunderstorms, especially by Sunday
into early next week. Confidence is low as the position of the upper-
level low is uncertain and will determine how much moisture is
available for convection. ZVS/JB


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Ceilings this afternoon are at IFR to MVFR
levels, with a trend to more solidly MVFR. A shortwave trough is
evident on water vapor imagery off the coast, and this feature will
traverse E through N CA later this afternoon and evening. The
deepened state of the marine layer, light westerly winds, and
passing coastal eddies are holding in the stratus this afternoon
along the coast. Visible satellite shows better breaks in the layer
than this time yesterday, and the inversion is further weakened.
Brief improvement to full clearing is expected today, particularly
on the rear flank of the eddy (easterly flow) as they pass before
stratus is potentially driven back in.

With the passing of the shortwave this evening, the marine layer
will maintain its depth and likely further deepen to unseasonable
heights. UKI will even have to be watched for stratus intrusion over
the higher terrain from its west, but this is typically difficult to
achieve over the summer months. This setup will greatly lower
probabilities for IFR to LIFR levels through this 18Z period.
Statistical models have been forecasting ceiling levels too low
with the seasonally anomalous marine level depths, so was cautious
with the duration of IFR in the 18Z TAFS. More bouts of early
morning light coastal drizzle will also be likely in this setup.


Forecast Confidence:

Chance for LIFR CIGS Low: Coastal Terminals have 20-40%. Statistical
guidance has been modeling ceilings too low under the anomalous
marine layer depth.

Chance for IFR CIGS Moderate to High with questions in duration: 65
to 80%

Fog probability Low: Coastal Terminals 15-20%.  JJW


&&

.MARINE...Fresh to strong northerly breezes have persisted in the
southern waters. Gusts will continue to reach 25 kts in the southern
waters with some locally higher gusts to near gale strength along
and south of Cape Mendocino. Winds today will push into the southern
inner waters as a shortwave crosses the area. The northern waters
will remain much more calm with gusts struggling to reach above 15
kts. Northerlies will generally intensify and spread further north
late in the week and will further strengthen through the weekend.
Near gale to gale strength gusts will fan outward from Cape
Mendocino and north off Point Saint George through the weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions are expected this week
into the weekend. Overnight RH`s recoveries continue good across the
valleys and moderate in the higher terrain. Afternoon RH remain low,
into the teens or 20s for much of the interior. Breezier west-
northwest winds are likely today through Friday, with gusts from 20
to 30 mph possible through the channeled terrain and gusts to 35 mph
possible in the highest terrain. Late this week into the weekend, a
ridge starts to build while an upper-level low looks likely to form
off the coast. Higher temperatures are forecast with triple digits
possible in the valleys. If the upper-level low off the coast is
positioned in a way to bring enough moisture into the area,
convection is not out of the question. As of now, thunderstorm
probabilities remain low (less than 10%) for the weekend, but start
to increase into early next week. Model soundings indicate any
thunderstorms are likely to be dry. JB


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...The lunar cycle will reach a new moon
phase on Wednesday. This will continue to create large tidal swings
and possibly some minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay over
the next high tide near midnight tonight. The forecast high tide
plus the persistent positive anomaly will yield a high tide around
8.6 ft, just short of advisory level. Large overnight to early
morning tidal swings to -2 feet will also create fast currents in
channeled waterways.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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